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 2024-09-01 19:38:17

Sender, P.; Buj-Corral, I.; Álvarez-Flórez, J. Analysis of Roughness, the Material Removal Rate, and the Acoustic Emission Signal Obtained in Flat Grinding Processes. Machines 2024, 12, 110. https://doi.org/10.3390/machines12020110

I'm Australian, but I have no doubt that our poor performance on and off the Rugby Union field has hurt NZ a lot. So too has the attraction of Rugby League via Australia been damaging to the All Blacks.

The third season of the Celtic Challenge will get underway next month with the teams competing in a new home-and-away league format.

Interesting take, crazy to see the amount of delulu NZ fans here. I am an NZ fan, but this is atrocious.I am fine with 75%+, in fact I think that is excellent, but the main point of anguish is not IF we win or lose, it is how. I think that Razor has finally got us playing to our identity again; flowing, simple, and brutally decisive & efficient.There are certainly some issues that the stats reflect, like the scrum and lineout. However, at scrum time, there isn't really much variation, in terms of attack, you can put on that. So at the end of the day, not much to do differently apart from 'scrum better'.However, the lineout is quite interesting. As Ryan said earlier this week, the ABs have added a lot of depth and combinations to their lineout, with FOUR lineout options (Barrett, Vaai, Savea, Sititi). While they did only retain 80% possession from lineouts (not great), the stat line is actually 12/15, which is pretty good, considering Aumua did all those lineout with limited experience and tiredness after playing 75 minutes at Twickenham.There are also some really good stats to back up the ABs. They managed to stay out of their own 22 for a lot of the game, however they also didn't set up camp in the opp 22 often either. They are also passing the ball a lot, clocking in at 211 passes, double that of England. These stats show a return to attacking, flowing rugby, and not playing your own 22, which is the ABs style.What I think Razor wants to do is make effective use of draw and pass, simple rugby. This can be pre or post contact, but you have to draw more than 1 player. For example, that Sititi offload to Telea, or BB to Jordan. Those were excellent, yet overall simple passages of rugby This can be risky at times (just watch DMac play), but it is a medium risk high reward gameplan.What we Kiwis want is exciting rugby. We want hard defense, big hits, cool plays, and quick linebreaks. I cannot imagine being an SA fan between 2018-2021, which was one of the most boring rugby teams of all time (respectfully). I also cannot imagine being an England fan right now, so dull. But the ABs are making rugby exciting again, playing like Scotland and Fiji, but better.

Professionalism created Super Rugby with SA and Oz. A very high standard, until two too many Australian sides dragged the standard down, then the withdrawal of SA teams completed the rout.

“Like a good headmaster, ‘Ted’ let me know when I’d done something wrong, but he wasn’t micro-managing every aspect of my rugby education. ‘Shag’ was a cop, keeping a close eye on everything like a detective. He had no trouble looking a player in the eye and giving him a blunt and brutal gee-up.”

As you say the geopolitics are now working against NZ. If the URC expands to include English sides it will become the biggest, and in time prob the best league in the world. It could have as many as six diff natiosn all competing in one comp.

So I think we will lose to Ireland and France in the coming weeks, but watch out as this pack builds into - I mean, look at the tight five and loose forwards that are coming for the ABs - De Groot, Lomax, Williams, Tosi, Taylor, Ofa T, Samson T, Aumua, Patrick T, Barrett, Vai, Fabian H, Setiti, Lakai, Savea, Frizzell (understand they are attempting to get him and Mo'unga back), Blackadder, Papalii and bar Barrett, Savea, Patrick T, Taylor - pretty young in international terms.

The succession planning from the supremely innovative, proactive days of the three wise men – Henry, Hansen and ‘the Professor’ Sir Wayne Smith – suddenly became merely a conservation project under the nurturing hand of Foster. Fozzy was more suited to rearranging the products of the past than staying ahead of the game, and the rest of planet rugby grabbed the opportunity to catch up with New Zealand gleefully.

Oh there rest of the world made a lot of positive strides, arrogant to think otherwise ED. Don't you believe other nations develop? South Africa? Ireland? France? Come on!Of those you mention, I recall the one who interested me most was Elliott Dixon. Whatever happened to him? He looked like he could be the next Kaino!Dual playmakers were always a thing, you maybe didn't notice because guys like Nonu and the two Smiths were so multi-faceted. The ppl who replaced them could not multi-task as well, esp versus [legal] rush D!

Dual playmakers were always a thing, you maybe didn't notice because guys like Nonu and the two Smiths were so multi-faceted. The ppl who replaced them could not multi-task as well, esp versus [legal] rush D!

Tbf it did look better at Twickers with the escort retiring behind the ball rather than stopping in front of it to defend the catcher. I had my doubts but it looked promising.

"Who else can play 10 outside Barrett and D mac?" Easy answer there, dw. Richie Mo'unga. Give Razor the players he wants !

70% is pretty good if you are winning tournaments. The period of 86% dominance is an outlier as I can't see any side getting up there with the serious threat of many nations able to pull a big result out these days.I would be thinking De Groot will be coming straight back in as loosehead against Ireland.Did you catch the NZ XV Munster game NB? Not bad for a scratch side. The Irish commentators made my big hope Holland MOTM.

Will be taking a peek at th Munster game today OM!Would also agree EDG has to be the #1 loosehead. Ppl keep touting Tamaiti to me but he still has an awful lot to learn!

I do feel that the current low level of competitiveness from Australia has been problematic for NZ rugby also, and hopeful that the Aussies are beginning a slow but progressive assent now. However, in historical terms there is sometimes an exaggeration about how competitive the field is now compared to past eras. The decline of Australia has curiously coincided with the rise of Ireland with Ireland's structured attack being notably reminiscent to that of the great Wallaby teams of 25 years ago or so. England were also strong back then too, lest we forget. France are currently as good as the French team in the 1980s, same with Argentina really, and South Africa merely holding the tradition of some great Springboks teams of the past. Where does NZ fit in to all of this? Currently at No.3 in the world, but still ambitious...

However, in historical terms there is sometimes an exaggeration about how competitive the field is now compared to past eras. The decline of Australia has curiously coincided with the rise of Ireland with Ireland's structured attack being notably reminiscent to that of the great Wallaby teams of 25 years ago or so. England were also strong back then too, lest we forget.

Huge front row starting and on bench, Power locks and usual class in loose forwards - only missing ingredient is a WC 10 and with Mo'unga back probably in 2026, these ABs are trending in a very healthy direction.

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If that is true I'd be dead aganst it. I think the South Africans have provided huge filip to the European game and I doubt England would do the same. They would prob also insist on all 10 of their clubs being included which would make URC very unwieldy.

Slipping is relevent if you only look back to 2010 or there abouts thru to 2018. A freakish period of success really. It never was the norm and will probably never be seen again over the extended period it was. Teams can have great runs thru 12-18 mths but 8-10 years of dominance is unheard of generally.

ABs will rise we have a lot of new talent coming through. The NPC was the highest standard for years. The game is changing to suit the fast pace we like to play.Isn't that part of the real point though Colin? The ABs are no faster than anyone else now, which is why they were dead last in fourth quarter points in the RC at minus 43. It's also why England have been able to fight them down to the wire over three matches in 2024.Be real. England is third or even fourth ranked team in the 6N behind Ireland, France and poss Scotland too. Borthwick is only coaching at just over 50% right now. The ultimate test it is not.

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Nobody can live on the summit of Everest forever, and every ascent has a descent on the other side of the mountain. But what part did New Zealand rugby play in its own relative downfall? How and when did New Zealand [and their supporters] begin to view themselves less as All Blacks, and more as Also-Rans?

Nice read. Those damn spoilt Kiwis. Can pop over the Tasman to God's country with little effort and win rugby games routinely.One thing, why are we policing the chasing lanes? Why encourage high ball kicking? Sometimes a chasing player may do something brilliant but it's mostly an easy way to move the ball and I'd prefer it was discouraged.

New Zealand Rugby gave out word to Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson he could begin planning for the post-Fozzy era around the same time Ryan and Schmidt replaced Brad Mooar and John Plumtree in the coaching group, and the personality transplant at head coach began well before its official announcement.

I do feel that the current low level of competitiveness from Australia has been problematic for NZ rugby also, and hopeful that the Aussies are beginning a slow but progressive assent now.

Whatever let's see if this load of waffle is still valid in 2 years time. ABs will rise we have a lot of new talent coming through. The NPC was the highest standard for years. The game is changing to suit the fast pace we like to play. We get to play the Springboks more, including the franchises, which will make us better! Overall I am optimistic. I will add having watched the England game multiple times we made most of the play. England are an awesome physical team, but you can expect the All Blacks to get better and better at executing the chances. It could easily have been 5 tries to one instead of 3 to 1.

Oh there rest of the world made a lot of positive strides, arrogant to think otherwise ED. Don't you believe other nations develop? South Africa? Ireland? France? Come on!

That is a good poat, JWH. You pick out very salient points."that Sititi offload to Telea " What struck me lookig at the replays was that Telea should never have got in down the outside. Genge froze as Telea got the ball, did a little half stop step. He had time to step out and force Telea in, or make a strong tackle. Telea is just too good and strong given that space.Must also add that was a superb offload by Sititi.

Haivng said that I feel you are heaping rather too many ashes on your own head as an Aussie in that last couple of paras!😅

Exactly right miz! England should have nothing to worry about with aus but they were so regressive at the weekend in selection, replacements and game plan that anything could happen. Add to the mix squad discontent with their eps two tier system that almost certainly sparked Marler’s walk out and subsequent hand grenade and it COULD unwind very quickly indeed for Borthwick…

The differences between right and left wing are often subtle but usually unappreciated. It is not uncommon to find wingmen who find the switch between edges uncomfortable: the receiving and fending hands are different, the main stepping foot changes and the positional requirements on defence, with the defender looking in from left to right, rather in the other direction, can be disorienting.

They can go on deluding themselves that they were unlucky to lose ( as Borthwick said post match ) but until they stop relying on rush defence and goal kicking to win I feel they're doomed to be ranked 4 or 5 in the world.

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He lost the 2023 World Cup final by a single point to Rassie’s Springboks after playing the bulk of the game with only 14 men, but on such fine margins do sporting reputations turn. Foster’s part in the reconstruction job after the disastrous series defeat by Ireland in 2022 was consigned to the dustbin of history, and the support he gave to Sir Steve Hansen from 2012 to 2019 became a dim and distant memory.

"The world never caught up the All Blacks just went backwards". C'mon EDi ! That is just not true. A lot of teams are now significantly better than in 2015. The Boks clearly are, Ireland have built on the Schmidt era, Going down the rankings, both Fiji and Scotland are better, and teams like Portugal were very good at RWC.

Tbf it did look better at Twickers with the escort retiring behind the ball rather than stopping in front of it to defend the catcher. I had my doubts but it looked promising.

I don't know much about it but will take a look HHT - too preoccupied with France!If that is true I'd be dead aganst it. I think the South Africans have provided huge filip to the European game and I doubt England would do the same. They would prob also insist on all 10 of their clubs being included which would make URC very unwieldy.

In any other country - even including South Africa - 75% would be more than acceptable JWH. It would be the holy grail of performance!I would heistate to see "a return to attacking, flowing rugby, and not playing your own 22, which is the ABs style" however. I don't feel the attack is sophisticated enough for that. Most of it is pretty basic stuff depending for its success on individual skill-sets, which are still of high quality.I'm also not sure you understand what pleases your average joe Springbok rugby supporter!

The introduction of Pasilio Tosi and Ofa Tu’ungafasi on one side, and Fin Baxter and Dan Cole on the other, changed the complexion of the scrummaging completely, with the All Blacks winning two penalties of their own and squeezing England hard enough to prevent an easy drop-goal attempt at the decisive moment of the match.

Ask any rugby league aficionado who is the greatest league coach in professional history, and they are more than likely to give you the same answer: Craig Bellamy. Supporters of Jack Gibson and Wayne Bennett might split hairs, but it is extraordinarily hard to argue with Melbourne Storm supremo Bellamy’s record over three decades in one of the most competitive leagues in the world: 21 finals appearances in 22 seasons, nine grand finals with five victories.

Excellent points Mz. Because of other commitments I have just watched the game.Interesting watching it after reading all the news reports especially in the English media. I was expecting to see a game that the ABs were very lucky to win. What I saw was a game where England showed their tactical incompetence and their inability to construct any try scoring opportunities.They can go on deluding themselves that they were unlucky to lose ( as Borthwick said post match ) but until they stop relying on rush defence and goal kicking to win I feel they're doomed to be ranked 4 or 5 in the world.Can't wait until the weekend to see how the Wallabies go against them Though I dare say Walter will be hoping for an England win.

Nick Im hearing SA clubs may well be voted out of Europe as the Premiership looks to join with the URC. What are you hearing on this?

Slipping is relative isn't it? The halo is bound to slip from 85% +, but that became the norm for AB supporters over the best part of a decade.

Occasionaly Romania, USA and Canada were ok, but again, NZ still tended to play only home nations teams + SA, France and Australia. They still got high win percentages. Their own comp was easily the best in the world.

One thing, why are we policing the chasing lanes? Why encourage high ball kicking? Sometimes a chasing player may do something brilliant but it's mostly an easy way to move the ball and I'd prefer it was discouraged.

However, the lineout is quite interesting. As Ryan said earlier this week, the ABs have added a lot of depth and combinations to their lineout, with FOUR lineout options (Barrett, Vaai, Savea, Sititi). While they did only retain 80% possession from lineouts (not great), the stat line is actually 12/15, which is pretty good, considering Aumua did all those lineout with limited experience and tiredness after playing 75 minutes at Twickenham.

Came up recently but the view was that current growth trajectory and existing tv contracts would stick with status quo. Apparently the welsh were talking with the Prem but they are in a very sticky position, financially and otherwise!Then again, with private equity at the table, literally anything could happen!!Personally I’d be very disappointed if SA & Italy were cast adrift.

Nice read. Those damn spoilt Kiwis. Can pop over the Tasman to God's country with little effort and win rugby games routinely.

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Isn't that part of the real point though Colin? The ABs are no faster than anyone else now, which is why they were dead last in fourth quarter points in the RC at minus 43. It's also why England have been able to fight them down to the wire over three matches in 2024.

Sender P, Buj-Corral I, Álvarez-Flórez J. Analysis of Roughness, the Material Removal Rate, and the Acoustic Emission Signal Obtained in Flat Grinding Processes. Machines. 2024; 12(2):110. https://doi.org/10.3390/machines12020110

Borthwick has some growing up to do. He blew it. How to strip your team of confidence with 20 odd minutes to go. Take off your best player who was controlling the game well with a nice lead. All the English players including Smith must have thought WTF ?If Borthwick doesn't grow up, and show 100% confidence in Smith, England will wallow in mediocrity waiting for Borthwick's dismissal.

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Even though the All Blacks didn't play them much, Argentina, Italy and Fiji weren't anything, though Ireland and Scotland were regular NZ bunnies.

If Tamaiti Williams starts the climactic game in Dublin on the loosehead, the redoubtable Irish and Lions’ ‘jukebox’ Tadhg Furlong [“the hits just keep coming”] will be licking his lips. Where Bath’s Will Stuart had to defend against Ethan De Groot in July, he went on the attack against the young Crusader prop.

The key is realising this AB side is not what they are now but what they will be in 2025/26.You can already see a Power bench forming, and I would highlight that people watch the AB XV game vs Munster and watch Fabian Holland - he, in the next 24 months, will be WC and bring some huge physicality to the team.Then, aligned with Peter Lakai, probably at 7, another WC talent, the AB pack by 2026 will probably both be starting and on the bench - be rated as No 1 or 2 packs in the world.Then, there is the usual WC talent around the backline, and the missing link is Mo'unga. Unlike in last year's WC, the coming forward pack for the ABs, is similar to the Bok pack, It will be packed full of power, and the key to this is a realitively young pack. So I think we will lose to Ireland and France in the coming weeks, but watch out as this pack builds into - I mean, look at the tight five and loose forwards that are coming for the ABs - De Groot, Lomax, Williams, Tosi, Taylor, Ofa T, Samson T, Aumua, Patrick T, Barrett, Vai, Fabian H, Setiti, Lakai, Savea, Frizzell (understand they are attempting to get him and Mo'unga back), Blackadder, Papalii and bar Barrett, Savea, Patrick T, Taylor - pretty young in international terms.Huge front row starting and on bench, Power locks and usual class in loose forwards - only missing ingredient is a WC 10 and with Mo'unga back probably in 2026, these ABs are trending in a very healthy direction.

With the world cup now having a draw closer to the tournament, with 1/8 finals, 1/4s , 1/2s it means its more of a meritocracy. So if you haven't been good enough in the years leading up then you will be found out. The matches will be getting progressively harder, if you are not good enough you get knocked out. No lucky draw or dodgy scheduling to help.

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Interesting watching it after reading all the news reports especially in the English media. I was expecting to see a game that the ABs were very lucky to win. What I saw was a game where England showed their tactical incompetence and their inability to construct any try scoring opportunities.

All along, and unrelated, France and (especially) Ireland got better and Argentina and Italy got good-ish. Australia moved the other way.

Yes williams will get better, but I'll warrant Jas Ryna was hoping for more given Stuart's struggles over in NZ in July v. De Groot. Will S looked like he was enkyoing himself against the youngster!

As someone who has followed both Rugby League and Union for donkeys years, I concur both about Bellamy and All Blacks at 70%.

Williams habitually packs with a very low left elbow and Stuart constricts his space further with a strong right ‘farmer’s arm’ bind. At 6ft 5ins tall, there is nowhere for the young loosehead to go but down, and he conceded two penalties for his pains.

Of those you mention, I recall the one who interested me most was Elliott Dixon. Whatever happened to him? He looked like he could be the next Kaino!

Think we have to accept we have been on the slide for a while now.Still interesting to see the repeated media pieces about the myth of the ABs slipping-I would say slipped past tense.In part don’t we have to give credit for the improvement of other nations particularly Ireland?Isnt that good for the game?Are we beginning to feel the impact of losing the Boks from Super rugby and maybe soon TRC?I would agree we are also ran right now so will be interesting to see how we progress-assuming we do!Isnt that part of sport though to be in improvement mode?Back to the stats though I think the Boks were under 60% leading into 2019?Now with the focus on the RWC does it matter so much what you are doing between tournaments?You just get through your group(remembering the ABs qualified 2nd in 2023)and then you have 3 matches to win the thing.

First point I would make is that England, in my view, were very disappointing. I think they have slipped back a long way from the two games in NZ, and the 6N win over Ireland. They were tentative, seemed to lack confidence, did not give enough opportunity for their really good players to cause many problems. And that was not because of Mitchell's absence. For example the first time I saw Furbank touch the ball in an attacking movement was around the 48th min. mark.In contrast, NZ were much more organised in defence, very secure at a high percentage of breakdowns, and had the majority of standout players. For example I felt their backrow far outplayed Englands. All three wree very good, with Sititi a real standout.The game on Sat. when the WB's come to town is one Borthwick will have sleepless nights over. Skelton is well known and feared there, and if Joe Schmidt builds around him in the right way, it could be ugly for England. Ofc England have by far the superior side on the team sheets. But they will have been hurt by that loss to the AB's. And the media beginning to smell blood in the water is anothe factor.

It looked all the world like a pre-programmed sub OJ. But Smith is playing well when he kicks well off the tee, and he was 100% on Saturday. Why not keep that on the field??

Thanks for the analysis Nick, thought provoking as usual. Couple of queries though, in the pic where you've circled Williams bind , I'm pretty sure it shows Stuart's knee on the ground, surely that's a NZ penalty? Also having had the chance to watch it again the All Black scrum seeems to improve after halftime, but before either England or the All Blacks replace their props. Not sure if that was the result of Tuipolutu coming on or some halftime tips. Either way this is only Williams second international season, so he'll be better for the experience.

New Zealand had so much talent wasted betwen 2016 - 2023 . Laumape , elliot dixon , ben tamefuna , pita gus , ben lam , vaea fifita and so many other in form players that never got a look or the time to develop into great All Blacks .

Then you have the dual playmaker system that never worked , but they kept using it . why ? cause some men cant admit when they're wrong . thats the All Blacks between 2016-2023 . wrong coaches with the wrong vision , going in the wrong direction . now it appears the world caught up . but like I said the world never caught up . then you add the obvious flawed referee calls that happen to go against us more often then for us now . the worst of which that never gets called is when the opposition use rush defence but have players offside . this has been going for years , but who cares ? .

Tele’a is one of those who is far more at home on the right. He completed all of his tackles, scored two tries and recovered three contestable kicks in the air.

Then, aligned with Peter Lakai, probably at 7, another WC talent, the AB pack by 2026 will probably both be starting and on the bench - be rated as No 1 or 2 packs in the world.

Move from there to empathy and a passive make-up and it was probably too big a leap for most of Henry and Hansen’s ex-players to make. It was something of nothing, a coaching afterthought.

The world never caught up the All Blacks just went backwards . After 2015 they had a plan to build the team around 2 players . Sam Cane and Beauden Barrett , Cane was hailed as the next Mccaw and Barrett the next carter . Unfortunately Cane sustained too many injures and Barrett despite being a great ball runner didn't have a high enough conversion rate or the game management skills to control the team and the game . Then to make matters worst , the selections were so bad year after year the forward pack became shockingly weak . New Zealand had so much talent wasted betwen 2016 - 2023 . Laumape , elliot dixon , ben tamefuna , pita gus , ben lam , vaea fifita and so many other in form players that never got a look or the time to develop into great All Blacks . Then you have the dual playmaker system that never worked , but they kept using it . why ? cause some men cant admit when they're wrong . thats the All Blacks between 2016-2023 . wrong coaches with the wrong vision , going in the wrong direction . now it appears the world caught up . but like I said the world never caught up . then you add the obvious flawed referee calls that happen to go against us more often then for us now . the worst of which that never gets called is when the opposition use rush defence but have players offside . this has been going for years , but who cares ? . anyway its almost 10 and i need to get some shut eye . Go the might All Blacks !!!!

I don't see becoming the norm again. The ABs prob will continue to improve but will they do it as quickly as other nations like France of SA? Big question!

There are certainly some issues that the stats reflect, like the scrum and lineout. However, at scrum time, there isn't really much variation, in terms of attack, you can put on that. So at the end of the day, not much to do differently apart from 'scrum better'.

NZ tried to resist making replacements in the second test against the Boks this year, and fatigued players just ended up making uncharacteristic errors at the end of the match.

There are also some really good stats to back up the ABs. They managed to stay out of their own 22 for a lot of the game, however they also didn't set up camp in the opp 22 often either. They are also passing the ball a lot, clocking in at 211 passes, double that of England. These stats show a return to attacking, flowing rugby, and not playing your own 22, which is the ABs style.

Yes, the only sides who have really threatened AB hegemony in the pro era have been Aussie around 1999-2001, England 2001-2003, and South Africa from 2019 to the present day. For most of the rest of the time it has been all about NZ.Haivng said that I feel you are heaping rather too many ashes on your own head as an Aussie in that last couple of paras!😅

“I played under three All Blacks head coaches, and they were all, to some extent, products of their upbringing and vocations. Graham Henry was a former school principal who watched over everything with a helicopter view and a discerning eye. Steve Hansen was a former cop, always needing to know everything that was happening in the background. And Fozzie, a clergyman’s son, was a very caring, empathetic guy who believed in fairness.”

We'll see where they stand at the end fo the current tour won't we? As I pointed out if they lose to Ireland and France it will be 9/14 for the year.

This time NZ have had a hard match 6 days before (Ireland had Scotland 6 days before in France), Ireland have been lining NZ up, the match is in Dublin and my gut tells me Ireland are pretty up for this one. It's only a test though and Ireland's revenge will only be satisfied by eliminating NZ from a RWC, win or lose on Friday we will learn a lot towards that end.

Nobody assumed that Ireland would beat them last time. That was a one score match and NZ admitted they had being lining Ireland up for a year.This time NZ have had a hard match 6 days before (Ireland had Scotland 6 days before in France), Ireland have been lining NZ up, the match is in Dublin and my gut tells me Ireland are pretty up for this one. It's only a test though and Ireland's revenge will only be satisfied by eliminating NZ from a RWC, win or lose on Friday we will learn a lot towards that end.

France are currently as good as the French team in the 1980s, same with Argentina really, and South Africa merely holding the tradition of some great Springboks teams of the past.

I would heistate to see "a return to attacking, flowing rugby, and not playing your own 22, which is the ABs style" however.

I don't feel the attack is sophisticated enough for that. Most of it is pretty basic stuff depending for its success on individual skill-sets, which are still of high quality.

In any other country - even including South Africa - 75% would be more than acceptable JWH. It would be the holy grail of performance!

Reminds me a little of our cricket teams in late 90s early 2000s. Everyone expected us to win every test but eventually we stopped being unbeatable.

Sender, Piotr, Irene Buj-Corral, and Jesús Álvarez-Flórez. 2024. "Analysis of Roughness, the Material Removal Rate, and the Acoustic Emission Signal Obtained in Flat Grinding Processes" Machines 12, no. 2: 110. https://doi.org/10.3390/machines12020110

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So far, the All Blacks have won 8 matches out of 11 this year. That is a near 73% win rate. AB fans and, I assume, the team itself are not content with that and have everything to play for with the remaining 3 tests this year. Their historical average is something like 77% these days and, although some years will always be better than others it is not likely to drop that dramatically to 70% any time soon. There is too much historical inertia on the stats. It is like saying Ireland’s form of the last 10 years or so is likely to reverse a historical average of 48% wins soon. It just isn’t. Moreover, when you say they are ‘doomed’ to a 70% flatline are you not just assuming that Ireland will beat them again? How did that work out for you last time?

What I think Razor wants to do is make effective use of draw and pass, simple rugby. This can be pre or post contact, but you have to draw more than 1 player. For example, that Sititi offload to Telea, or BB to Jordan. Those were excellent, yet overall simple passages of rugby This can be risky at times (just watch DMac play), but it is a medium risk high reward gameplan.

They started brightly enough on attack but then faded to the point where the intercept try looked like it was the only way they were going to score.I don't think the addition of Spencer for Mitchell helped from that POV but one player should not make such a big diff!Interesting question about Skelton's role next weekend Miz. From what I hear he may start from the bench, which would be a bit of a waste.

New Zealand all-time great Sam Whitelock gave a most revealing insight into the personality differences between the three main men in his autobiography View from the Second Row:

If Borthwick doesn't grow up, and show 100% confidence in Smith, England will wallow in mediocrity waiting for Borthwick's dismissal.

Now a dose of perspective: in his tenure as head coach of the All Blacks, Ian Foster achieved 32 wins from 46 matches at a 69.6% win rate – the same as Bellamy, and fractionally ahead of double World Cup winner Rassie Erasmus, who currently stands at 69.4%. But while Erasmus is elevated to demigod status in his country, and the man nicknamed ‘Bellyache’ is considered a legend of his sport, ‘Fozzy’ is largely perceived as a failure.

That said, I just don’t see how NZ gets back to any kind of dominant position. Sure they can compete well but the structural issues around the geopolitics of world rugby have moved against them and they’ve got their work cut out just to stay in and around the top 3. I say this as someone who predicted they would prevail over England at Twickenham last Saturday but even then, their handling errors and poor execution in attack left a lot of points out on the pitch. I genuinely can’t recall seeing an All Black team rack up so many last pass errors in one game.

Interesting question about Skelton's role next weekend Miz. From what I hear he may start from the bench, which would be a bit of a waste.

It was the Aucklander’s second try which illustrated just how fine his feeling for space and time is out on the right sideline.

Abstract: In this work, the analysis of the acoustic emission (AE) signal in grinding processes is addressed. The proposed analysis method decomposes the acoustic signal into three frequency ranges. The total energy of each range is determined, as well as the highest frequency. Different grinding experiments were carried out, according to a full factorial design of experiments (DOE), in which feed speed, depth of cut, and transversal step (table cross feed) were varied. Arithmetic average roughness Ra and the material removal rate (MRR) were determined. It was observed that Ra depends mainly on the transversal step, followed by feed speed and the interaction between the transversal step and depth of cut, while MRR is greatly influenced by the transversal step. According to multi-objective optimization with the Derringer–Suich function, in order to simultaneously minimize Ra and maximize MRR, a transversal step of 9 mm per longitudinal pass, feed speed of 20 m/min, and depth of cut of 0.020 mm should be selected. Keywords: flat grinding; acoustic emission; EMD; roughness; MRR

Its interesting that many seem to judge the ABs on a once in a life time period of success. Their overall ( total of 648 Games all up ) win % is at 76% and thats probably a fair view of reality. Yes, Razor will probably end up short of that this year but I dont remember a year where many teams have played 7 games v top 5 opposition and particularly this tour where its V 5, V 1 in 6 days then V 4 a week later. As an older ABs fan Ive seen some pretty bad era's and some pretty good era's. I feel around 75% is not only possible but probable for Razor in the 4 year period he is signed for.

On the positive side of the slate, Wallace Sititi enjoyed another outstanding man-of-the-match outing at six, Mark Tele’a returned to his rightful spot on the right rather than the left wing with major impact, and the bench front-row reversed the refereeing momentum at scrum time at a crucial point of the game.

Yes SW's comments made the most sense to me given what I'd been told and what I'd seen from the outside looking in Ed.It sounds like ppl were given room to wriggle out of a sense of responsibility, and that's how it felt at the time.As you say the geopolitics are now working against NZ. If the URC expands to include English sides it will become the biggest, and in time prob the best league in the world. It could have as many as six diff natiosn all competing in one comp.I reckon the ABs deserved to win on Saturday even though England should have put the game away at the end. NZ were the better attacking team.

The thing is MQ that the 85% was the anomaly. It was an unprecedented run of excellence that may never be repeated. To judge any sports team on their best ever period is only going to lead to disappointment. Im happy with the 75% mark which is NZs average in its rugby history. Foster was always on a hiding to nothing.Slipping is relevent if you only look back to 2010 or there abouts thru to 2018. A freakish period of success really. It never was the norm and will probably never be seen again over the extended period it was. Teams can have great runs thru 12-18 mths but 8-10 years of dominance is unheard of generally.

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I am fine with 75%+, in fact I think that is excellent, but the main point of anguish is not IF we win or lose, it is how. I think that Razor has finally got us playing to our identity again; flowing, simple, and brutally decisive & efficient.

Thanks Nick.Yes, the field is closing up.As someone who has followed both Rugby League and Union for donkeys years, I concur both about Bellamy and All Blacks at 70%.Of course, back in the day (and until recently) there were only a few international Rugby teams of true class.The All Blacks and Springboks were top shelf with England, France and occasionally Wales and Australia as contenders.Even though the All Blacks didn't play them much, Argentina, Italy and Fiji weren't anything, though Ireland and Scotland were regular NZ bunnies.Occasionaly Romania, USA and Canada were ok, but again, NZ still tended to play only home nations teams + SA, France and Australia. They still got high win percentages. Their own comp was easily the best in the world. Professionalism created Super Rugby with SA and Oz. A very high standard, until two too many Australian sides dragged the standard down, then the withdrawal of SA teams completed the rout.All along, and unrelated, France and (especially) Ireland got better and Argentina and Italy got good-ish. Australia moved the other way.I think 70% for NZ is top shelf now, and that's realistic. I'm Australian, but I have no doubt that our poor performance on and off the Rugby Union field has hurt NZ a lot. So too has the attraction of Rugby League via Australia been damaging to the All Blacks. Not their fault, our fault!

It led to some uncomfortable clashes, most notably when Robertson and Foster publicly disagreed over the policy of national eligibility. Razor was open to moving on and picking players from overseas, Fozzy wanted to stay put and do what had worked for New Zealand rugby in the past. That focused the friction between a proactive, ‘get-up-and-go’ personality and the more circumspect, conservative view in a nutshell.

I'd agree that 75% is a realistic aim given where the top teams are right now HH. At the same time I can esily see the rate falling as low as 65% and I'm not sure what that would do to the health of the game in the country?

In contrast, NZ were much more organised in defence, very secure at a high percentage of breakdowns, and had the majority of standout players. For example I felt their backrow far outplayed Englands. All three wree very good, with Sititi a real standout.

Then, there is the usual WC talent around the backline, and the missing link is Mo'unga. Unlike in last year's WC, the coming forward pack for the ABs, is similar to the Bok pack, It will be packed full of power, and the key to this is a realitively young pack.

It is already too late now, to expect the introduction of a super proactive character to have the same impact as a Henry or Hansen. The genie is already out of the bottle and any revisit to the heady heights of their era is unlikely. The days of 70% are here to stay.

What we Kiwis want is exciting rugby. We want hard defense, big hits, cool plays, and quick linebreaks. I cannot imagine being an SA fan between 2018-2021, which was one of the most boring rugby teams of all time (respectfully). I also cannot imagine being an England fan right now, so dull. But the ABs are making rugby exciting again, playing like Scotland and Fiji, but better.

Moreover, when you say they are ‘doomed’ to a 70% flatline are you not just assuming that Ireland will beat them again? How did that work out for you last time?

When Richie Mo’unga was a schoolboy Razor went and watched him play a game, Mo’unga said he had an awesome game scored a couple of tries and made a couple of try saving tackles but after the game Razor came up to him and said you missed a tackle, you won’t play for me if you miss tackles. Richie was looking down and he said look at me when I’m talking to you and then said you need to be confident and brave and stick your head in there. I’m not a AB fan but Razor is a modern day great coach who brought Mo’unga through and now he can’t get the benefit of using him with the ABs. But what I admire with Razor is he’s sticking to his guns, he’s a trend setter not a follower and he’ll get this team back to number 1. He’s no fool, he a straight talking guy and he drives high standards. He’ll change the game to an attacking mindset again and then teams will be chasing their tales trying to catch up.

I reckon the ABs deserved to win on Saturday even though England should have put the game away at the end. NZ were the better attacking team.

Their historical average is something like 77% these days and, although some years will always be better than others it is not likely to drop that dramatically to 70% any time soon. There is too much historical inertia on the stats. It is like saying Ireland’s form of the last 10 years or so is likely to reverse a historical average of 48% wins soon. It just isn’t.

New Zealand’s last-gasp 24-22 win over England on Saturday – the All Blacks’ third win over the men in white in the Robertson era – moved Razor on to 72.7%. Assuming New Zealand beat Italy in their last tour game, it could be as high as 78.5%, or as low as 64.3% by the end of his first year in charge. Thus, 70% may become the new 85% for the All Blacks.

You can already see a Power bench forming, and I would highlight that people watch the AB XV game vs Munster and watch Fabian Holland - he, in the next 24 months, will be WC and bring some huge physicality to the team.

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Slipping is relative isn't it? The halo is bound to slip from 85% +, but that became the norm for AB supporters over the best part of a decade.I don't see becoming the norm again. The ABs prob will continue to improve but will they do it as quickly as other nations like France of SA? Big question!

Barrett is out injured for the next match against Ireland, so Razor will cycle back to Damian McKenzie and Jordan for that game. With both featuring in the All Blacks’ preferred backfield for counterattacking purposes and the new refereeing guidelines discouraging escorts of the receiver in place, it will present the men in green with some ripe targets for aerial bombardment.

Moreover, when you say they are ‘doomed’ to a 70% flatline are you not just assuming that Ireland will beat them again? How did that work out for you last time?

ABs will rise we have a lot of new talent coming through. The NPC was the highest standard for years. The game is changing to suit the fast pace we like to play.

Whitelock saw the writing on the wall as early as 2021, after twin tour defeats by Ireland and France: “We were not being coached well enough… we had prepared too many excuses for our under-performance.” A harder edge returned with the mid-2022 appointments of Joe Schmidt and Jase Ryan, but it was not quite enough to put the All Blacks over the top at the World Cup one year later.

Nobody assumed that Ireland would beat them last time. That was a one score match and NZ admitted they had being lining Ireland up for a year.

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With the kicking lanes far more open for the chaser under the new guidelines, the game in Dublin could well be decided in the air, and Tele’a and Caleb Clarke are a strong combination in that area of the game.

“I don’t think George Ford has ever missed a drop kick in his life, you know. We showed a lot of character, stayed in the fight for a long period of time and [with] 15 minutes to go, to come from eight down is a pretty special moment for us as a group.”

Nick Im hearing SA clubs may well be voted out of Europe as the Premiership looks to join with the URC. What are you hearing on this?

Moreover, when you say they are ‘doomed’ to a 70% flatline are you not just assuming that Ireland will beat them again? How did that work out for you last time?As the phrasing implies it was tongue in cheek!🤣We'll see where they stand at the end fo the current tour won't we? As I pointed out if they lose to Ireland and France it will be 9/14 for the year.

By the time Robertson took over the reins it was already too late, and the die was cast. New Zealand may be doomed to the 70% flatline for the foreseeable future, and Robertson will be repeating the same tired record for some time to come:

They started brightly enough on attack but then faded to the point where the intercept try looked like it was the only way they were going to score.

Reminds me a little of our cricket teams in late 90s early 2000s. Everyone expected us to win every test but eventually we stopped being unbeatable. Nz also seem to be relying on older players for some positions too. Who else can play 10 outside Barrett and D mac?

Next year as an example NZ play SA at home ( 2 tests ) and France at home ( 2 tests ) plus the usual suspects in the RC but the EOYT is unknown atm.

It looked all the world like a pre-programmed sub OJ. But Smith is playing well when he kicks well off the tee, and he was 100% on Saturday. Why not keep that on the field??

Real insight from Whitelock that hits the nail bang on the head and fozzy’s biggest failing was actually self awareness on the missing piece, essential in the coaching ticket, that held feet to the fire with a real hard edge on accountability. The failure in this was perhaps even greater on the part of NZRU who must have seen the gap in requirements but were asleep at the wheel until it was too late. Any elite set up that doesn’t come with a healthy dose of fear in the mix will not cut it when it really matters.That said, I just don’t see how NZ gets back to any kind of dominant position. Sure they can compete well but the structural issues around the geopolitics of world rugby have moved against them and they’ve got their work cut out just to stay in and around the top 3. I say this as someone who predicted they would prevail over England at Twickenham last Saturday but even then, their handling errors and poor execution in attack left a lot of points out on the pitch. I genuinely can’t recall seeing an All Black team rack up so many last pass errors in one game.

Most nations in the rugby world would accept a 70% win rate without the slightest hesitation. Some Tier One teams would bite your hand off if such an offer was presented. Not so the All Blacks and their supporters, who have been fed a rich diet of 85%-plus far too long for their good.

Yes williams will get better, but I'll warrant Jas Ryna was hoping for more given Stuart's struggles over in NZ in July v. De Groot. Will S looked like he was enkyoing himself against the youngster!

Did you catch the NZ XV Munster game NB? Not bad for a scratch side. The Irish commentators made my big hope Holland MOTM.

Be real. England is third or even fourth ranked team in the 6N behind Ireland, France and poss Scotland too. Borthwick is only coaching at just over 50% right now. The ultimate test it is not.

"that Sititi offload to Telea " What struck me lookig at the replays was that Telea should never have got in down the outside. Genge froze as Telea got the ball, did a little half stop step. He had time to step out and force Telea in, or make a strong tackle. Telea is just too good and strong given that space.

That short sample amply describes the stratospherically high level of expectation that besieges all coaches of the All Blacks, granting them only the thinnest of air to breathe. Foster’s predecessors, two of the three wise men Sir Graham Henry and Hansen, guided their charges to consecutive World Cups, 11 Rugby Championships out of a possible 14, and colossal cumulative record of 191 victories from 210 Tests over 14 years, at an 86.2% win rate.

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The new norm has expressed itself via inconsistency. Some departments of the team improved, others trod water or slid backwards in West London on Saturday afternoon. Although Beauden Barrett and Will Jordan created an excellent switch try between them in the 28th minute, the game management balance was still off, with Barrett kicking 16 times compared to twice only by Jordan.

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The game on Sat. when the WB's come to town is one Borthwick will have sleepless nights over. Skelton is well known and feared there, and if Joe Schmidt builds around him in the right way, it could be ugly for England. Ofc England have by far the superior side on the team sheets. But they will have been hurt by that loss to the AB's. And the media beginning to smell blood in the water is anothe factor.