How to drill holes in 3/8" thick steel plates? - 3/8 long drill bit

2024-09-22 10:52:43

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…It has begun. Over the last year, I have made the strongest possible case for the Fed to be proactive. Rates should have been cut this week – indeed, the rates should have been cut in January. We have seen this movie before. The Fed was very late to take inflation seriously in 2021. They brushed it off as “transitory”. However, it seemed obvious that inflation was surging. Real-time shelter inflation was increasing at a double-digit rate. Shelter has the largest weight in the CPI. Shelter operates with a lag. Hence, it was easy to forecast the surge. The Fed was forced to react after the damage was done. The same mistake has been repeated – despite many warnings. The recent CPI print was 3% year-over-year (YOY). Nearly two thirds of this print was driven by one component – shelter. Shelter inflation is reported at 5.2% YOY. This number is far from reality. For example, Apartmentlist.com rents are running -0.8% YOY - a full 6% below the official CPI number. Suppose we believe the real-time shelter inflation is 2%, not 5.2%. This means the real-time CPI would be 1.8%. If you believe shelter is 3%, then real-time CPI would be 2.2%. These numbers are well within the Fed’s target. The Fed prides itself on making data-driven decisions. However, it is unwise to make decisions based on stale data. The shelter inflation happened in the past. Keeping rates high will not impact what happened last year. It is always best to look at forward-looking indicators for policy decisions. · My yield curve indicator has been inverted for 20 months. It is 8 of 8 with no false signals since the 1960s. The maximum historic lead time has been 23 months (before the great recession). Ignore it at your own risk. · The Sahm Rule has been triggered. This indicator is not necessarily predictive because employment moves with the business cycle – but it is useful in telling us whether we are in a recession or not. We know that hiring has slowed and unemployment has risen – though the absolute rate is still relatively low. · Retail sales are highly correlated with personal consumption expenditures. Retail Sales are flat. Many do not realize that Retail Sales are not inflation adjusted. Taking inflation into account recent sales growth as well as YOY sales are negative. · There is considerable evidence that COVID-era savings have been drawn down. A recent release from Philadelphia Fed carried the headline: “Share of Delinquent Credit Card Balances Reaches Series High”. (The same report shows an alarming plunge in mortgage originations.) People are paying 20%+ interest on a card because their savings have run out. Indeed, if people are cutting back on fast-food expenditures, you know this is serious. Drawing down the savings has fueled consumption expenditures over the past two years. That source of growth has ended. Now the Fed will have to play catch-up and cut by at least 50bp in September. Any recession is a self-inflicted wound.

What would inflation, growth and asset prices would look like now if the Fed had started its cutting cycle a year ago? It is hard for me to believe global QE has had no impact on the signaling power of the yield curve. The whole idea of QE is to lower the path of bond yields--is that a positive or negative signal for the outlook?

Looks like CBs enjoy to play on the razor blade. As u rightly said they moved late on dec-21 (my :conspiracy theory" is that they WANTED create inflation in order to get down the real debt burden) and they are moving late now, maybe because they want to dry up the excess of liquidity created during COVID era. In both of cases this behavuor has nothing to do with price stability.

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There’s never been a more obvious time to by investment real estate. Generations of real estate investors have seen the benefit of investing in a declining interest environments. interest rates go down and asset prices go up. Invest now before the froth comes in which will be sooner rather than later because of the amount of money sitting in fixed income while it is still attractive.

Why? You think inflation gone?? You think geopolitical gone?? You think earnings bad? The only problem is the central banks model of raising rates to slow economy and lowering to push, doesn’t work anymore. They will act only when there’s a hard landing and the thunder is coming, volatility jump from 14 to 21 in 1 week. Got to love this game

Double Plus Everything in this post. Especially the Part about making decisions on “stale” data. None of this is a surprise to anyone paying attention.

Data Dependency There is a lengthy list of data releases this week that will give the Fed plenty to chew on as we look toward the Nov 7 FOMC meeting. Week Ahead ► Inflation: Most notably, the August PCE inflation report is expected to show a cooling to 0.1% m/m from 0.2% in July, with core roughly steady at 0.2%. Fed Governor Waller noted that the expected softness in Aug PCE inflation (implied by last week's CPI & PPI reports) was a key factor in pushing him into the 50bps camp at last week's meeting. ► Housing: We'll get updates on the housing market as well, with home price indexes from FHFA and S&P CoreLogic expected to show a modest rebound in July vs June, but a downshift in Aug New Home Sales (-6% m/m) after a 10.6% surge in July, while Aug Pending Home sales are also expected to inch lower (-0.8%) after a -5.5% decline in July. ► Economy: On the broader economy, we'll get the third estimate of 2Q24 GDP, which will include annual revisions that incorporate more complete source data and some methodological improvements, and S&P Global's preliminary Sept Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), which is expected to show a modest rebound for manufacturing alongside a slight cooling for the service sector. ► Consumer: One other notable data release will be the Aug Personal Income & Spending report, which is expected to show a modest acceleration in income growth to 0.4% from 0.3% in July and cooler spending (0.3% vs 0.5%), which would help lift the savings rate from its near-record low of 2.9%. Week in Review ► Consumer: Last week started with an Aug Retail Sales report that reflected continued strength in control group spending that feeds directly into 3Q24 GDP, but some softness in the details. ► Housing: The Sept NAHB index was in-line with expectations and showed a modest rebound from recent lows, while housing construction rebounded sharply from a soft Aug, while Aug Existing Home Sales declined more than expected (-2.5% vs -1.3% cons) back toward the post-COVID low. ► Fed: As everyone is likely aware by now, the Fed cut 50bps instead of the 25bps expected by consensus. In explaining the rationale behind cutting 50bps, Chairman Powell argued that “the upside risks to inflation have diminished, and the downside risks to employment have increased." ► Outlook: Further softness on either side of the Fed's mandate will certainly raise expectations for larger moves at subsequent meetings. #ArchEmployee #Fed #Housing #Consumer #Labor #Rates #Inflation

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Hospitality industry… take note of Campbell Harvey post from last week. He is spot on with his commentary and analysis on rate cuts. The Fed missed the boat on this one, and unfortunately, it’s too late to right the ship at this point. Travel is always the first to be cut, delinquencies are stacking up. Savings have been depleted and Interest rates are at a cyclical high. Avoiding a recession at this point is unlikely. The cyclical trends before and after the GFC are eerily similar to the current environment. High interest rates, increasing unemployment, increasing consumer defaults, and increasing commericial defaults. Hotels are more B2C than B2B, but will be affected on both fronts. Hotels should expect this recession (yes it’s imminent at this point) to be as deep and long as the the GFC. It will likely be worse given we still had not recovered to historical demand and inflation adjusted revPar levels. For those sitting on the sidelines, you will only have to sit tight for a few more months. Over the past couple years we’ve seen many very high “per room” transaction prices. If you bought a hotel in the past two years, don’t expect your value to return for 2 to 3 years. I expect some of these assets will be going back to lenders. No one in the hotel industry will be left on unscathed. Even those investors with plenty of dry powder have and will be handing the keys back to their lenders. Is that unfair? As I tell my kids, Make good decisions! people are watching!

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The Fed should have asked, why are “shelter rents” surging during COVID? U-Haul knew, but not the Fed. If the Fed understood the issue, this really was transitory. Instead they raised rates 11 times on rent data that is collected twice per year in a consumer rent survey. Fed Chair couldn’t understand why rents were “stubborn” and later called “sticky”. Everyone should know this by now, including the Fed. Their actions continue to be a complete economic fail. No wonder the EU, Canada, Switzerland and England are now cutting their own path to lower rates.

One would think you’d have a better gauge for shelter by now considering its weight in the CPI. Ominous how far from official print the numbers would be if you take in real-time data, per Prof Harvey’s estimates. It is yet to be seen how this month’s weak jobs data pulls into the coming months, especially if a 50 bps cut in September is becoming a more mainstream expectation/call.

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"The shelter inflation happened in the past. Keeping rates high will not impact what happened last year." I couldn't agree more. Every business these days is investing a lot of time and money to get better real-time data to make better decisions faster. The Fed needs to learn this lesson or they will continue to hurt all of us for no reason other than, "This is how we've always done it." That phrase has killed many businesses.

The economic mix this time around is particularly interesting. We've had the most participants in our equities market than ever before. And they participate automatically, every 2 weeks. Demographically, we've only started to meaningfully sell our equities (just in the last couple of decades) as our Boomer generation retires and passes away (and even then, these are getting inherited instead). Housing, banking, corporate real estate, construction... have been depressed for well over a year. This is especially thanks to the Fed's actions (and inaction) over the past couple of years. But they didn't break (March 2023 feels so long ago)... High yields on credit did not immediately stop spending (presumably because cash yields have been enough for many people). Only in the last few months has spending finally slowed to the degree we were expecting a year and a half ago. It is believed that the extra yield actually continued the spending spree which delayed the data that the Fed has been expecting to see. Corporate profits have been surprisingly resilient, and the ability of Corps to pass costs to consumers has honestly been a revelation to me. We do NOT live in the economist's world. Most of the S&P 500 companies (and especially the Nasdaq-100 companies) do not have enough competition to push prices down like the economic books claimed should occur. They've continuously retained market dominance and pricing power. And there's more! But I think what I listed above addresses why the outcome is still ambiguous... Finally, I do agree that the Fed is out of touch. Things need to change, dramatically, for trust to return to that institution. Probably a removal of Powell and a clear readjustment of their process as well as a communication withdrawal.

I have watched a video where an orthopedic made football shaped stones and painted it nicely so that it will look alike a football. Then he left the football looking stones to many locations. The next day he found that his chamber is full of patients. The moral of the story is they (FEDs) are clever enough to cause problems and then receive extra remuneration to fix the problems. Additionally, they become a hero of their own created problems. Not to mention this will benefit them financially in the future too.

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Latest Inflation Figures Provide Fed Greater Options Compared to April, the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in May, increasing the chance of interest rate cuts this year. On an annual basis, CPI is 3.3 percent higher than the year-ago level. Following the release of May’s inflation numbers, the market is pricing in a 70 percent chance of a cut during the September meeting. Three additional readings are anticipated between now and then, along with second quarter GDP. Pedestrian economic growth of 1.3 percent in this year’s opening period is pressuring the Federal Open Market Committee to reverse monetary policy and support a soft landing. The elevated cost of capital has battered large sectors of the economy that rely on leverage. Existing home sales are near April 2011 levels, when transactions began to mirror market demand outside of government stimulus. New car sales are well below the peak in 2016 and many models are sitting idle on dealer lots. Optimism for a reduction in interest rates could convince buyers to move forward with leveraged purchases that can be refinanced in the future. However, stubborn energy and food prices may keep consumers from finding room in their budgets and an actual loosening of monetary policy alongside deep discounting may be needed before pulling the trigger on larger purchases. Analysis: The Fed wants to reverse monetary policy before the election to prevent a recession. If economic growth changes course to economic contraction, few other issues will matter to voters. “It’s the economy, stupid,” resonates today as it did in 1992. Nonetheless, the Fed has a history of pushing on a string and failing to create price stability and maximum employment as market forces outpace policy decisions. I suspect the FOMC will cut rates in September unless summer data releases are incredibly weak. That is a distinct possibility. August job numbers tend to be soft because respondents are on vacation and second-quarter GDP is impacted by retooling automotive lines, closed schools, and other sectors that reconfigure during that time. Overall, I suspect the Fed drops the funds rate 50 basis points this year and there is a small, but rising chance that the zero-bound comes into play next year. Record home prices, equity markets, and high interest rates are not an unfamiliar road, though this one is not as bumpy as the one in the late aughts.

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I think the original sin here actually occurred in August 2021, when the Fed altered its Monetary Policy framework (to explicitly allow inflation run too hot at times and to effectively be less forward-looking). I believe that change (there were other circumstances, of course) contributed to the Fed raising rates too late in the aftermath of COVID. Now, they have to lean more heavily on the inflation side of their dual mandate to regain credibility. I would cite UMich inflationary expectations still being too high as a metric of their lost credibility. Absent the 2021 framework change, I believe the Fed would have hiked sooner, and cut sooner now.

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How to drill holes in 3/8" thick steel plates? - 3/8 long drill bit

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